Mafia Game

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Mafia Game; Classic Themed
Tweet Topic Started: Feb 25 2012, 04:32 AM (4,375 Views)
* Sousen Ichimonji	Feb 26 2012, 10:32 PM Post #16
You are calm and reposed, let your beauty unfold Posts: 4,176 Group: Retired Staff Member #3,986 Joined: February 15, 2009 Gender Not Specified Country None Favourite Anime Avatar What Browser do you use? Chrome Favourite Manga Ai Kora	I love Becca Feb 26 2012, 08:45 PM Lynch: Big Smelly Willy (Voltaire) I'm going to vote you off like nobody's business tomorrow, you scamp.
	Call me a safe bet, I'm betting I'm not I'm glad that you can forgive, only hoping as time goes, you can forget


+ Dan	Feb 26 2012, 10:36 PM Post #17
Better than Red. Posts: 1,571 Group: Elite Member Member #5,757 Joined: February 21, 2011	wolffanghameha Feb 26 2012, 10:21 PM I love Strawberry Feb 26 2012, 06:43 PM Aren't the roles random? So it won't matter who has been bad in the past? Yeh but you know-probabilities and all that. The probability of someone being in the mafia twice in a row would be something like Amount of mafia members in first game/number of people playing in the first game * Amount of mafia members in the second game/number of people playing in the second game. But it would still be the same probability it is for DanielSan as it is for me or you.
	Is it too late to tell you that I don't mind. Keep Calm And Chupa No Pilau


TrunksinSwimmingTrunks	Feb 26 2012, 10:52 PM Post #18
Formerly known as daman Posts: 8,651 Group: Member Member #5,599 Joined: January 6, 2011 Gender Not Specified Country Canada Favourite Anime One Piece, Gintama, You and Me, Haibane Renmei, Initial D, FMAB, No. 6, Wtt NHK! , Dragon Ball What Browser do you use? Tortoises were made to live not be used. Stormo/Pedy/Nims/songohanfrancais whereru Favourite Manga Dorohedoro,IamaHero, Again!!, All Rounder Meguru,RRR,Berserk,Dragon Boru. Ninjajp/Slayerslice appeal	Well look at it like this then. If there were 5 balls in a bag (yep typical textbook example) and 1 ball is red and 4 are blue, and you take a ball out once, then replace it then take 1 out again, then the probability that you take out a red ball twice is- 1/5 * 1/5 = 1/25 =0.04 and the probability that you take out a red ball followed by a blue ball is 1/5 * 4/5 = 4/25 = 0.16 and the probability that you take out a blue ball followed by a red ball is 4/5 * 1/5 = 4/25 = 0.16 So it's more probable that if you don't take out a red ball the first time then you will the second time, than if you do take a red ball out the first time. If red ball=mafia and blue ball=non-mafia then if somebody was mafia in the last game they're less likely to be mafia this time than somebody who wasn't mafia in the last game. edit: now I'm paranoid about being wrong Edited by TrunksinSwimmingTrunks, Feb 26 2012, 10:53 PM.
	kamizake pyro is a girl? olsiw Make the old spam section viewable plz


+ Dan	Feb 26 2012, 11:25 PM Post #19
Better than Red. Posts: 1,571 Group: Elite Member Member #5,757 Joined: February 21, 2011	wolffanghameha Feb 26 2012, 10:52 PM Well look at it like this then. If there were 5 balls in a bag (yep typical textbook example) and 1 ball is red and 4 are blue, and you take a ball out once, then replace it then take 1 out again, then the probability that you take out a red ball twice is- 1/5 * 1/5 = 1/25 =0.04 and the probability that you take out a red ball followed by a blue ball is 1/5 * 4/5 = 4/25 = 0.16 and the probability that you take out a blue ball followed by a red ball is 4/5 * 1/5 = 4/25 = 0.16 So it's more probable that if you don't take out a red ball the first time then you will the second time, than if you do take a red ball out the first time. If red ball=mafia and blue ball=non-mafia then if somebody was mafia in the last game they're less likely to be mafia this time than somebody who wasn't mafia in the last game. edit: now I'm paranoid about being wrong Ok that's all right. I'm going to use an example from the staff mafia and the batman mafia. In the staff mafia there were 12 participants, in which there were 3 mafia. In the batman mafia there were 12 participants, 2 of which were mafia. The probability of being mafia in the staff game was 1/4. The probability of being mafia in the batman game is 1/6. Everyone who was in the batman game had the same probability of being mafia. It doesn't matter whether they were mafia in the staff game. That doesn't matter to being mafia in the batman game. Everybody still has the same probability of being mafia in this game. Yeah I was mafia in the Cell game, and yeah the probability of me being mafia in that game and being mafia in the batman game was slim. But it is the same probability for me as for everyone, regardless of whether they've been mafia in others. I forgot my point quite a while back. I think it was something like "Everyone has the same chance of being mafia, regardless of whether they've been mafia in other games, the creators don't take that into account, they just pick randomly" So because DanielSan was mafia in an earlier game doesn't mean he is less likely to be mafia now. So if we lynch him now then it would be same chance of getting a mafia as it would be if we were to lynch you or me. To be honest, this really doesn't matter, someones gonna die anyway, two people actually, considering mafia takes someone out at night unless someone protects whoever.
	Is it too late to tell you that I don't mind. Keep Calm And Chupa No Pilau


+ Rebel X	Feb 27 2012, 12:39 AM Post #20
Posts: 11,612 Group: Legend Member #88 Joined: January 16, 2005	Midday Update Looks like it's gonna be another good season of lynching :] Current Lynching Votes: Lynch DanielSan- 5 (havoc_wreaker, Voltaire, ReLoaded, liamthedbzfan, I love Strawberry) Lynch Solid Snake Vixen- 1 (wolffanghameha) Lynch Voltaire- 1 (I love Becca) Those that have not voted: 1. DanielSan 2. Kaio- Shin 3. Frankie 4. Krystal Be vary wary and Good Luck It is Still Day Time



* Sousen Ichimonji	Feb 27 2012, 02:56 PM Post #21
You are calm and reposed, let your beauty unfold Posts: 4,176 Group: Retired Staff Member #3,986 Joined: February 15, 2009 Gender Not Specified Country None Favourite Anime Avatar What Browser do you use? Chrome Favourite Manga Ai Kora	Isn't Frankie the only person who's currently active of the four left to vote?
	Call me a safe bet, I'm betting I'm not I'm glad that you can forgive, only hoping as time goes, you can forget


+ Rebel X	Feb 27 2012, 03:02 PM Post #22
Posts: 11,612 Group: Legend Member #88 Joined: January 16, 2005	Voltaire Feb 27 2012, 02:56 PM Isn't Frankie the only person who's currently active of the four left to vote? No. Krystal, Last Activity: Yesterday, 10:27 PM DanielSan, Last Activity: Yesterday, 3:12 PM Kaio- Shin, Last Activity: Yesterday, 2:39 PM Frankie, Last Activity: Today, 5:10 AM They've all been in communication with me too.



* Sousen Ichimonji	Feb 27 2012, 03:27 PM Post #23
You are calm and reposed, let your beauty unfold Posts: 4,176 Group: Retired Staff Member #3,986 Joined: February 15, 2009 Gender Not Specified Country None Favourite Anime Avatar What Browser do you use? Chrome Favourite Manga Ai Kora	Well why dontcha communicate an urgency to come to this topic and play then, buster.
	Call me a safe bet, I'm betting I'm not I'm glad that you can forgive, only hoping as time goes, you can forget


+ Rebel X	Feb 27 2012, 07:09 PM Post #24
Posts: 11,612 Group: Legend Member #88 Joined: January 16, 2005	Voltaire Feb 27 2012, 03:27 PM Well why dontcha communicate an urgency to come to this topic and play then, buster. They probably think they're too cool lol. Like I said in the OP though, inactivity increases your chance of lynching.



liamthedbzfan	Feb 28 2012, 02:20 AM Post #25
Posts: 34 Group: Member Member #7,322 Joined: February 15, 2012	Wow, where are they? I'm ready to move on.
	Love Starwars? Join the Starwars forum,link here! http://w11.zetaboards.com/StarwarsF/index/


Krystal	Feb 28 2012, 06:05 AM Post #26
Cooking Mama Posts: 1,728 Group: Member Member #7,091 Joined: December 19, 2011 Gender Female Country United States Favourite Anime Dragonball Z, Gantz, Madoka, Gankutsuou, Full Metal Alchemist Favourite Manga Elfen Lied	I guess for this first round I will go for Danielsan.



TrunksinSwimmingTrunks	Feb 28 2012, 10:09 AM Post #27
Formerly known as daman Posts: 8,651 Group: Member Member #5,599 Joined: January 6, 2011 Gender Not Specified Country Canada Favourite Anime One Piece, Gintama, You and Me, Haibane Renmei, Initial D, FMAB, No. 6, Wtt NHK! , Dragon Ball What Browser do you use? Tortoises were made to live not be used. Stormo/Pedy/Nims/songohanfrancais whereru Favourite Manga Dorohedoro,IamaHero, Again!!, All Rounder Meguru,RRR,Berserk,Dragon Boru. Ninjajp/Slayerslice appeal	Rebel X Feb 27 2012, 07:09 PM Voltaire Feb 27 2012, 03:27 PM Well why dontcha communicate an urgency to come to this topic and play then, buster. They probably think they're too cool lol. Like I said in the OP though, inactivity increases your chance of lynching. How so? Do you just mean because people suspect them? What's the opposite of a self-fulfilling prophecy? self-nullifying? self-negating?
	kamizake pyro is a girl? olsiw Make the old spam section viewable plz


* Sousen Ichimonji	Feb 28 2012, 11:39 AM Post #28
You are calm and reposed, let your beauty unfold Posts: 4,176 Group: Retired Staff Member #3,986 Joined: February 15, 2009 Gender Not Specified Country None Favourite Anime Avatar What Browser do you use? Chrome Favourite Manga Ai Kora	self-negating prophecy, sounds about right. For anyone under the illusion that silence will keep you alive, it will actually kill you: we tend to eliminate inactive players ASAP because they're dangerous to the anti-mafia cause.
	Call me a safe bet, I'm betting I'm not I'm glad that you can forgive, only hoping as time goes, you can forget


+ Dan	Feb 28 2012, 03:41 PM Post #29
Better than Red. Posts: 1,571 Group: Elite Member Member #5,757 Joined: February 21, 2011	We get rid of the less active people because they aren't active, and they hold up the game. All we want to do is play.
	Is it too late to tell you that I don't mind. Keep Calm And Chupa No Pilau


+ Rebel X	Feb 28 2012, 06:08 PM Post #30
Posts: 11,612 Group: Legend Member #88 Joined: January 16, 2005	Night Time Working quickly the towns folk decide to lynch DanielSan! You know what that green color means folks, you've just killed your fellow man. Danielsan was a Townie. Mafia is doing a very good job in their first day, very elusive and concise in their actions. Watch out Townies! This could get ugly quick, better find a way to work up a solution. Everyone with a night action, Please PM me, No one that's playing may post. If you post at night then you will be put up for auto-lynch (which is BAD! so don't do it) Night Time will go by much quicker than Day Time



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