A Million Dollars or....

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A Million Dollars or....
Tweet Topic Started: Mar 9 2017, 11:05 AM (3,047 Views)
* Yu Narukami	Mar 10 2017, 01:26 PM Post #31
Izanagi! Posts: 12,330 Group: Retired Staff Member #6,446 Joined: July 3, 2011 Gender Not Specified Country None	Overly Facetious Goblin Mar 10 2017, 01:22 PM Am I a terrible person for saying that I probably would? I'm sure that if this was a real situation, many of you would change your answer to yes. It's hard to take the moral ground when you're behind a computer and not actually in the situation. People die every second. Animals die every second. Every second, we're moving closer toward extinction. If it was guaranteed to be someone that I knew, my answer would be different, but if it's someone on the other side of the world and you won't even know that they're gone? Maybe it's someone who's going to die anyway, or a terrible person, a criminal or something. It's hard to say no at that point. You will know that they're gone, though. Regardless of whether you know them personally or not, you'd still be directly responsible for the person's death. The lack of knowledge of that person works both ways as well. Sure, it could be a terrible person, or somebody who was going to die anyway, or it could be a little kid who's happy and optimistic for the future.



Tinny	Mar 10 2017, 01:40 PM Post #32
Posts: 6,060 Group: Super Moderator Member #12,355 Joined: May 24, 2015 Gender Not Specified Favourite Anime Silver Spoon, Fate/Zero, Legend of Galactic Heroes, Space Patrol Luluco, Psycho-pass, Miss Kobayashi What Browser do you use? Chrome, Edge Favourite Manga Wizard's Soul ~Holy War of Love~	As much as it's a fun belief that people would do so, and perhaps some would, it's as far as I can tell, objectively ignorant to assume a normal human would take the chances. And this isn't some big moral reasoning either, it's simple psychology. When it comes to gaining something, we are averse to risks, and the way this question is worded, of course many will not do so. Doing so is wrong from most perspectives, only gains them a million dollars (again, people aren't as likely to risk in order to gain something as they are in order to avoid losing something), nothing is at stake if you don't, and humans are generally bad at telling probability, which all together means that most won't including myself. Its basic psychology dictating most won't. Morality for the most part doesn't need to enter into it. Frankly even just switching it so you have to pay money to keep someone alive our they'll be killed would make the question more interesting and at least slightly harder to solve, or as Emiya said, your life is on the line. Edited by Tinny, Mar 10 2017, 01:51 PM.
	Above signature created by Graffiti


+ Ginyu	Mar 10 2017, 01:55 PM Post #33
Leve Feyenoord 1! Posts: 4,490 Group: Elite Member Member #9,685 Joined: June 30, 2013 Gender Female Country Netherlands Favourite Anime NJPW What Browser do you use? Chrome Favourite Manga Reading is for nerds, yo!	I know way too many people I don't care about to not press the button.
	Ask GinyuTokusentai


~~Doggo Champion 2k17~~	Mar 10 2017, 02:10 PM Post #34
Posts: 7,931 Group: GTFO Member #6,380 Joined: June 20, 2011 Country United States Favourite Anime here comes What Browser do you use? o shit waddup! Favourite Manga dat boi	Tinny, I disagree because it may not be that big of a risk. For example, if it were a standard lottery where every person's name was put into a random generator, the chances of it landing on someone you know, or even someone in your proximity, are pretty much zero. I can't see most people saying no to that. On the other hand, if it were a lottery where the chances of it being someone you know were significantly higher, most people would probably say no out of fear.



* Yu Narukami	Mar 10 2017, 02:33 PM Post #35
Izanagi! Posts: 12,330 Group: Retired Staff Member #6,446 Joined: July 3, 2011 Gender Not Specified Country None	Overly Facetious Goblin Mar 10 2017, 02:10 PM Tinny, I disagree because it may not be that big of a risk. For example, if it were a standard lottery where every person's name was put into a random generator, the chances of it landing on someone you know, or even someone in your proximity, are pretty much zero. I can't see most people saying no to that. On the other hand, if it were a lottery where the chances of it being someone you know were significantly higher, most people would probably say no out of fear. Really? Why the assumption that most people wouldn't say no if it was somebody they didn't know?



Darker	Mar 10 2017, 02:35 PM Post #36
The Lord of the Dark Posts: 15,358 Group: Member Member #11,968 Joined: January 7, 2015 Gender Male Country Spain	Tinny Mar 10 2017, 01:40 PM Frankly even just switching it so you have to pay money to keep someone alive our they'll be killed would make the question more interesting and at least slightly harder to solve, or as Emiya said, your life is on the line. I imagine no one would really press the button if there's the slight possibility of them dying.
	Piccolo: Just how many people have you sacrificed?! Cell: Sacrifice? Hmph, rubbish! On the contrary, it is an honor to become a fraction of my power.


* Mitas	Mar 10 2017, 02:49 PM Post #37
It truly was a Shawshank redemption Posts: 12,129 Group: Retired Staff Member #2,993 Joined: December 16, 2007 Gender Male Favourite Anime DBZ What Browser do you use? Google Chrome Favourite Manga DBZ, Full Metal Alchemist	Nagito Komaeda Mar 10 2017, 02:33 PM Overly Facetious Goblin Mar 10 2017, 02:10 PM Tinny, I disagree because it may not be that big of a risk. For example, if it were a standard lottery where every person's name was put into a random generator, the chances of it landing on someone you know, or even someone in your proximity, are pretty much zero. I can't see most people saying no to that. On the other hand, if it were a lottery where the chances of it being someone you know were significantly higher, most people would probably say no out of fear. Really? Why the assumption that most people wouldn't say no if it was somebody they didn't know? This. Just because you would, you can't assume everybody else would. Sure, it could be a horrible person, but it could be a nice person. That's the whole idea of the risk; if it were guaranteed to be a horrible person, I imagine many more people would say yes. I'd definitely consider it a lot more (although I'd still probably say no). Also, in the same way that it's easy to take a moral high ground in a hypothetical situation, it's also easy to say you would take the other option too. If we're going down that route, there's no point in even having discussions like this because nobody truly knows until the situation is in front of them.
	"Then you've got the chance to do better next time." "Next time?" "Course. Doing better next time. That's what life is."


Tinny	Mar 10 2017, 03:43 PM Post #38
Posts: 6,060 Group: Super Moderator Member #12,355 Joined: May 24, 2015 Gender Not Specified Favourite Anime Silver Spoon, Fate/Zero, Legend of Galactic Heroes, Space Patrol Luluco, Psycho-pass, Miss Kobayashi What Browser do you use? Chrome, Edge Favourite Manga Wizard's Soul ~Holy War of Love~	Overly Facetious Goblin Mar 10 2017, 02:10 PM Tinny, I disagree because it may not be that big of a risk. For example, if it were a standard lottery where every person's name was put into a random generator, the chances of it landing on someone you know, or even someone in your proximity, are pretty much zero. I can't see most people saying no to that. On the other hand, if it were a lottery where the chances of it being someone you know were significantly higher, most people would probably say no out of fear. You might, I was responding not to the belief that you'd do it, I could try to psychoanalyze you over the internet but I doubt I'd have accurate answers, especially considering I'm simply a college student I disagree with the immolation that people would in general, you are relying on everyone yo think like you do, for their brain to work I'm a similar way top you, and for experiences to mold then into a particular shape. You say it's not that big a risk, your relying on human beings to adhere to the rational choice theory, which had been very conclusively disproven. You are relying on humans to accurately judge probability as well, which we generally fail at (frequency maybe, but not probability), especially when it comes to more complex problems. People aren't good at doing such actions.Like for example, assigning a value to their family, then doing math with percentages to fine the expected value of pressing the button vs not pressing the button. And once again prospect theory pretty much disagrees with that idea, people are risk averse, regardless of the expected value, when it comes to gaining something. Also this topic relies on our being someone you know, not someone on the planet, it's not a lottery of billions, it's the people you know which iirc according to Dunbar, should generally be 100-250 (hell if we include fictional characters in that it's probably a little lower in reality). People already refuse an 80% at winning $4000 to win $3000 for certain, now that one of the possible loses is potentially an extremely valuable object (that is sometime you care about), I don't see why must people would press it. You might, Ginyu might, some people might. Many will not when faced with this question. It's simple science. Probability assessment has surprisingly little to do with it. I'd write a bit more but I have to go. Point is basic psychology dictates that most well not risk something potentially large, to gain a thing, simply because logically it won't result in that. People are very averse to loss and risk and are often unwilling to chance it in order to gain something until it's (iirc) more than twice as valuable as the potential (not certain or even likely) loss. This question is essentially geared to get a "no I wouldn't" answer based on multiple psychological factors.
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+ Sandy Shore	Mar 10 2017, 04:39 PM Post #39
Posts: 1,860 Group: Elite Member Member #12,337 Joined: May 18, 2015	... Edited by Sandy Shore, Nov 7 2017, 09:05 AM.



* Yu Narukami	Mar 10 2017, 04:44 PM Post #40
Izanagi! Posts: 12,330 Group: Retired Staff Member #6,446 Joined: July 3, 2011 Gender Not Specified Country None	Again, are people perfectly comfortable killing somebody they don't know?



* Mitas	Mar 10 2017, 04:48 PM Post #41
It truly was a Shawshank redemption Posts: 12,129 Group: Retired Staff Member #2,993 Joined: December 16, 2007 Gender Male Favourite Anime DBZ What Browser do you use? Google Chrome Favourite Manga DBZ, Full Metal Alchemist	Also, people keep overlooking that the topic said 'somebody you know will die', not just a random person in the world. It's a pool of people you know, be that people whose face you recognise in the street, people you sort of know, friends, family etc. So the chance of someone you care about dying is considerably higher.
	"Then you've got the chance to do better next time." "Next time?" "Course. Doing better next time. That's what life is."


Tinny	Mar 10 2017, 04:53 PM Post #42
Posts: 6,060 Group: Super Moderator Member #12,355 Joined: May 24, 2015 Gender Not Specified Favourite Anime Silver Spoon, Fate/Zero, Legend of Galactic Heroes, Space Patrol Luluco, Psycho-pass, Miss Kobayashi What Browser do you use? Chrome, Edge Favourite Manga Wizard's Soul ~Holy War of Love~	Quote: There is approximately a 0.000003% chance you'll kill someone you know that's incorrect. You can know 250 at most, especially for the majority of people, 0.4% chance that any specific person will die when you press that button. So long as were arguing odds anyway that, is about the upper limit. Maybe you are some kind of Super Human who can go so incredibly far beyond Dunbar's number, but I doubt that applies too many others, even on here. If we're talking about odds, it's 1/100 to 1/250 chances for any given person to die in most cases, and the vast majority will face those odds. 1% to 0.4%. And again Quote: but pressing the button will kill somebody you know. It's not someone on Earth, it's explicitly someone you know, in some way. Edited by Tinny, Mar 10 2017, 05:01 PM.
	Above signature created by Graffiti


+ Sandy Shore	Mar 10 2017, 05:18 PM Post #43
Posts: 1,860 Group: Elite Member Member #12,337 Joined: May 18, 2015	... Edited by Sandy Shore, Nov 7 2017, 09:06 AM.



~~Doggo Champion 2k17~~	Mar 10 2017, 05:19 PM Post #44
Posts: 7,931 Group: GTFO Member #6,380 Joined: June 20, 2011 Country United States Favourite Anime here comes What Browser do you use? o shit waddup! Favourite Manga dat boi	Where are you gathering that I know 250 people? I don't even need more than two hands to count the names of people that I care about on. I could probably list the names of people that I know and wouldn't get past 25. The odds of a person that I actually care about being selected are nill. I care about maybe 10 people. But if the topic is that someone I know will die, then I suppose I would say no since the number of people that I know in no way reaches to 250. Edited by Doggo Champion 2k17, Mar 10 2017, 05:20 PM.



Dingo	Mar 10 2017, 05:27 PM Post #45
Posts: 557 Group: Orangutan Member #9,745 Joined: July 13, 2013 Gender Not Specified Country None Favourite Anime Dragonball What Browser do you use? Chrome	If the button killed someone in the world at random it would be a tougher choice. As is I wouldn't kill someone I know for only 1 million. Edited by Dingo, Mar 11 2017, 07:57 AM.
	Wisdom Wisdom Pack 🐺🐕🦊🐩🐶


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