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| Non US Politics #1; The French Election | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Mar 4 2017, 02:35 AM (547 Views) | |
| Copy_Ninja | Mar 4 2017, 02:35 AM Post #1 |
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Novacane for the pain
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I like talking about politics. I'm also tired of the dumpster fire of US politics. We have four long years ahead of us to keep talking about this. So lets move on to some new stuff. I'll make some threads over the next while about politics in other countries (or internationally in general) as a bit of a pallet cleanser and I think this is the best place to start. The French election is next month and it's going to be a big one. The incumbent President is Francois Hollande of the Socialist Party but in an incredible turn of events, he is not even running for re-election. He is the first president of France's current (and fifth) Republic not to stand for re-election. This is due to him being massively unpopular and it's basically sunk the chances of his party in this election. Which should tell you something, because France is quite left leaning and the Socialists don't stand a chance this time around. So, France has a two round system for election. First round is a vote between all the candidates. If no one receives an absolute majority (i.e. 50%+1 of total votes cast) then a second vote is held two weeks later between the top two candidates. So don't expect the candidate that wins with a plurality in the first ballot to win the presidency because it depends on where all those others votes go. So, who are the candidates? Well, there's 5 in total but there's three that really matter. Marine Le Pen is the Nominee for the National Front party, which was founded by her father. They are right wing populists that are anti-EU, economic protectionists who advocate tougher measures on law and order and immigration. Unsurprisingly with this right wing surge we've had over the past decade she's one of the three with a good chance of winning. She has a small lead at the top of the polls at the moment. Next up is Francois Fillion of the centre-right Republicans. He's a former French PM, having served from 2007-2012. He's not exactly moderate as far as Conservatives go in France and in most other years he'd be considered a fairly right leaning candidate but because of Le Pen's candidacy he's come out looking like a moderate. His win in the Primaries was a surprise, he was polling at third a week before the vote. He was considered a favourite for this election, however there's since been allegations of corruption against him relating to embezzlement of government funds. He's still continuing in the election and is still right in the mix but that may have put a huge dent in his chances, especially if he gets to the second round and is against anyone other than Le Pen. Third is Emmanuel Macron. He's a former member of the Socialist Party but is running as a psudeo-independent representing a "party" known as Le Marche!, which was a movement he initiated last year. He's the most liberal candidate running, especially in terms of social policy. Incredibly, he has only just released his entire platform two days ago so it's hard to say anything concrete on what his policies are. But, in a general sense, he's running on a socially liberal/economically conservative platform, comparable to the Third Way Democrats in the US or New Labour in the UK. He was not given a serious chance when he first announced but with the Socialist Party falling over he's basically swept up most of the left wing support in France which is giving him a serious chance. How things will go depends on the two candidates that reach the second round. The reason I think it will be difficult for Le Pen is that you would expect everyone who did not vote for her in the first round to vote for her opponent in the second round because she is very polarising over there. I think her best shot is if she goes up against Fillion given the investigation going on against him, there might be enough hesitancy from non-supporters to vote for him that she could ride the wave of her support home. I think Macron could beat either of them should he get there, though it'd be interesting to see what Le Pen's supporters would do if she failed in the first ballot. |
We'll never be those kids again
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| + Ginyu | Mar 4 2017, 08:38 AM Post #2 |
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Leve Feyenoord 1!
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Le Pen is gaining a lot of popularity, but I can't help but think she will never win. She could do very well in the first round of voting, but eventually it'll come down to two parties in the second round of voting, no way either of these 3 candidates will pull off a majority vote in the first round. Le Pen is a Trump like candidate where the majority of people are screaming: anyone but Le Pen. A large portion loves her, but she will never get a majority voting for her. Of course Trump was lucky he had about the worst leader the Democrats could've put forward, Le Pen does not have this luck. Fillion and Macron are both competent leaders that can defeat her. Predictions for me. First round: 1. Le Pen 2. Macron 3. Fillon Second round: Macron wins. It all depends on who goes out in the first round really. If it's Macron vs Fillon then the Le Pen voters will most likely switch over to Fillon making Fillon the winner. If it's Macron vs Le Pen then the Fillon voters will take the lesser of two evils which is probably Macron in their eyes making Macron the winner. (<this scenario is most unpredictable though) If it's Le Pen vs Fillon then then the Macron voters will most likely take the lesser of two evils which is probably Fillon in their eyes making Fillon the winner. Fillon wins 2/3 times, but is lowest in the polls making the second scenario most likely, which is also the most unpredictable scenario. We'll see. Dutch elections are also coming up in two weeks, not that I expect you guys to know a lot about it really... My father said that this is one of the most (if not the most) interesting elections he has ever witnessed. |
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| Copy_Ninja | Mar 4 2017, 10:41 AM Post #3 |
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Novacane for the pain
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The Dutch election is crazy to, say what you want about Trump and Le Pen etc.'s dogwhistles but Wilders is full on openly racist. Kind of disgusts me that a man that opened his campaign by calling Moroccans scum could be about to emerge as the winner. But don't you guys have the issue of forming the coalition? It's a parliamentary system and no one ever wins a majority in the Netherlands and I doubt anyone will want to to form a coalition with that party. |
We'll never be those kids again
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| + Ginyu | Mar 4 2017, 04:27 PM Post #4 |
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Leve Feyenoord 1!
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Wilders is not openly racist. He knows exactly what the law allows him to do and never crosses it. He talks about 'Moroccan scum' but never calls all Moroccans scum. He's referring to a select stereotypical group of Moroccans that causes trouble in neighborhoods. Other parties have addressed that issue as well but the PVV is just really blunt about it. Wilders is still an awe full leader though. The Islamophobia I can understand, especially if you live in a neighborhood where the Moroccan youth is very active. But he wants to leave the EU, lower retirement age, binding referendums for every decision the government makes. It's ridiculous. Making a coalition is indeed going to be troublesome this year. Only a few parties have admitted they want to work with the PVV, but these are mostly small parties that need to join any coalition they can get like 50PLUS (another sh*tty party that I might explain later). It's bad in 2 ways. 1. A sixth of the country might vote PVV (most recent polls), and their voice will pretty much silent as the PVV can't enter government. 2. The parliament will be more purple which never seems to work. (We can have a red parliament which consists of left-wing parties, a blue partliament consisting of right-wing parties, and the more mixed it is the more purple it becomes) The last 4 years our parliament was about as purple as it could get. Two parties rules: VVD and PvdA, both with a little over 40 zetels. Made decision making very tough. Right now it looks like a 50-50 chance really about whether of not we'll get a red or blue parliament. I'm hoping myself for a blue one with VVD, D66, CDA and then room for other parties like the SGP or 50PLUS, and maybe throw in a progressive one like GroenLinks to reach the 75 zetels mark. I'm still not sure who I will vote for. Either VVD or D66. A quick summery of the Dutch parties for those interested: is big needs spoiler
Edited by Ginyu, Mar 5 2017, 03:05 PM.
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| Political Piper | Mar 5 2017, 01:45 AM Post #5 |
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I like this idea, Copy. I've been meaning to branch out and get more involved in international politics so I commend the thread Give me a little bit to get caught up on some of these things and I will partake. Can't discuss things I don't know much about. It just appears desperate |
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| SpeedoTrunks | Mar 6 2017, 09:23 AM Post #6 |
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what are the candidates like? I know one is very "pro-france", which I wasn't sure if thats in a postive way or the "trump" way? |
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| + Ginyu | Mar 6 2017, 10:06 AM Post #7 |
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Leve Feyenoord 1!
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Sounds like a friendly term for a nationalist. Sounds like Le Pen. |
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